4 key Takeaways
Recessions, cessations, and their variation
The past decade’s recession was brought on by excess lending and borrowing accompanied by unwanted speculation. The current scenario is a result of governments mandating closures. The disruption is common, as is the opportunity to build back better.
Keep an eye on 3 critical levers: ROT
Rates, oil, and trade. Covid-19 has driven interest rates down to nearly zero and augmented the flood of money in oil. Even trade continues to flourish, but the businesses that stand to gain are the ones catering to the homebody economy.
If inflation takes off, all bets are off
The ‘big if’ now is inflation. If inflation kicks in, central banks will be forced to slam the brakes. Stock markets will tumble and businesses will find it more expensive to borrow. As the normal changes, so must business strategy.
Win the race for IQ points
The most pressing economic issue in the present and for the long run isn’t interest rates but the race for intelligence. The businesses, towns, cities, and countries that harness intelligence in all its forms will prosper most in the future.
Whether it’s as a professor at Harvard or the Director for Economic Policy at the White House, this award-winning economist knows the pulse of disruption. He contextualizes economics, finance, policy and business strategy to assess where the world is now, to predict where it might be going. At Infosys Confluence 2020, Todd Buchholz traced the ups and downs of the economic normals created by disruption. The takeaway was clear: whatever the crisis, there is always an opportunity to rebuild for better, using the equalizing forces of digital and economics.
Ask not if the economy overall will prosper; ask what you can do to help your company and help your community.
